The Concession Rate In San Francisco Is Falling

The Concession Rate In San Francisco Is Falling

Abraham Elmahrek

When the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns began, the rental markets came to a halt. Renters everywhere were facing uncertain economic futures when many lost their jobs. A lucky few individuals prospered and used this time to get out of a high cost lease and travel the world. Either way, renters moved out of their apartments seeking greener pastures.

Around June of 2020, we decided it would be a good idea to track the rate at which property managers were offering concessions and the average discount (how many months free you can get). We find listings on the internet via the Padfever Chrome Extension and analyze them using Machine Learning.

Here's a bit about what we found...

The rate of concessions being offered has dropped by 54% since June, 2020:

The concession rate for listings from 06/2020 to about 03/2020 aggregated on a quarterly basis.

Here is a list of the most common concession seen each month since June, 2020:

Month Most Common Concession
06/2020 2 months
07/2020 2 months
08/2020 2 months
09/2020 2 months
10/2020 2 months
11/2020 1 months
12/2020 1 months
01/2021 1 months
02/2021 1 months
03/2021 1 months

In June, 2020, there were over 1000 ads in San Francisco that we tracked that were offering a 2 month discount. In March, 2020, there were 233 ads in San Francisco that were offering a 2 month discount.

Our conclusion: It seems like the market is starting to turn around in San Francisco. It still isn't particularly great for property managers, but they aren't offering competitive discounts as often. Now is probably a good time to find a place if you're a renter.

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