What will happen?
Some folks will get evicted. Renters who have declared that they're facing economic hardship are protected until December 31st, 2020. Afterwards, it's up to landlords to figure what to do with tenants who haven't paid. Usually, they ask them to leave or evict them.
Every year, there are around 2 million eviction cases filed. In San Francisco alone, over 1000 eviction notices were sent in 2019. Somewhere between 9 and 14 million renters are at risk of eviction (5 times more than usual).
As of November, around 1/5 of renters owe back rent across the US. In some cities, almost half of all renters are behind.
Many landlords will likely pursue payment through the court system. Similarly, evictions will storm the court systems.
Basically, pressure on the courts will rise. They'll either have to expand / adapt, or court dates will be pushed out.
Major cities including San Francisco, New York, and Washington DC have seen price drops as high as 25%. This is not a computation of net effective rent. It's possible there are concessions dropping this rate even further in practice. In fact, the majority of large multifamily buildings are offering at least 2 weeks of rent free. This is largely due to people moving out of major cities for greener pastures, literally.
As renters will be forced to leave due to lack of payment, more units will flood the market causing a temporary price drop. We'll be tracking downward price pressure Padfever via concessions.
With the CDC dropping its protections at the beginning of 2021, there should be some increase in rental supply. This should cause a temporary price drop. also, the court systems should see an increase of evictions and back pay lawsuits. This may make property managers and real estate investors risk averse.
- https://sfrb.org/sites/default/files/Document/Statistics/19-20 AnnualEvctRpt.pdf